Umwaka wa 2025 uteganijwe kuba ingenzi ku rwego rw'ingufu n'umutungo kamere ku isi. Intambara iri hagati y'Uburusiya na Ukraine, guhagarika imirwano i Gaza, n'inama ya COP30 iteganyijwe muri Brezili - izaba ingenzi kuri politiki y'ikirere - byose birimo guhindura imiterere y'isi. Hagati aho, gutangira kwa manda ya kabiri ya Trump, hamwe n'ingamba za mbere ku ntambara n'imisoro y'ubucuruzi, byongereyeho ibyiciro bishya by'ubushyamirane muri politiki.
Muri iki gihe kigoye, ibigo by’ingufu bihanganye n’ibyemezo bikomeye ku bijyanye no gutanga imari mu bikomoka kuri peteroli no mu ishoramari rikoresha karubone nke. Nyuma y’ibikorwa bya M&A byaguye agahigo mu mezi 18 ashize, kwishyira hamwe kw’ibigo bikomeye bicukura peteroli biracyakomeye kandi bishobora kuzakwirakwira mu bucukuzi bw’amabuye y’agaciro vuba aha. Muri icyo gihe, ikigo cy’amakuru n’iterambere ry’ubuhanga mu by’ubutasi biri gutuma habaho gushakishwa byihutirwa kw’amashanyarazi meza amasaha yose, bisaba inkunga ikomeye ya politiki.
Dore ibintu bitanu by'ingenzi bizahindura urwego rw'ingufu muri 2025:
1. Politiki y'ubutaka na politiki y'ubucuruzi bihindura amasoko
Gahunda nshya za Trump zo gushyira imisoro ku isoko ry’isi zibangamiye cyane iterambere ry’isi, zishobora kugabanya amanota 50 y’ibanze ku kwaguka k’umusaruro rusange w’isi (GDP) no kuyigabanya kugeza kuri 3%. Ibi bishobora kugabanya ikiguzi cy’ibikomoka kuri peteroli ku isi ho barrels 500.000 ku munsi - hafi amezi atandatu y’umwaka. Hagati aho, kuva muri Amerika mu masezerano ya Paris ntibisiga amahirwe menshi y’ibihugu kuzamura intego zabyo za NDC mbere ya COP30 kugira ngo bigaruke ku murongo wa 2°C. Nubwo Trump ashyira imbere amahoro ya Ukraine n’Uburasirazuba bwo Hagati, umwanzuro uwo ari wo wose ushobora kongera ibicuruzwa no kugabanya ibiciro.
2. Ishoramari rirazamuka, ariko ku muvuduko muto
Biteganijwe ko ishoramari ryose mu ngufu n'umutungo kamere rizarenga tiriyari 1.5 z'amadolari y'Amerika mu 2025, ryiyongereyeho 6% ugereranyije n'umwaka wa 2024 - amateka mashya, ariko iterambere rikagabanuka kugera kuri kimwe cya kabiri cy'umuvuduko wagaragaye mu ntangiriro z'iki kinyejana. Amasosiyete arimo kwitonda cyane, agaragaza ko hari impungenge ku muvuduko w'impinduka mu ngufu. Ishoramari rikoresha karubone nke ryazamutse rigera kuri 50% by'ikoreshwa ry'ingufu zose mu 2021 ariko kuva icyo gihe ryagabanutse. Kugera ku ntego za Paris bizasaba ko ishoramari nk'iryo ryiyongeraho 60% mu 2030.
3. Itsinda ry'abashinzwe peteroli b'i Burayi rigaragaza uko babyitwayemo
Kubera ko ibigo bikomeye bya peteroli muri Amerika bikoresha imigabane ikomeye kugira ngo bibone abikorera ku giti cyabo mu gihugu, amaso yose ari kuri Shell, BP na Equinor. Icyo bashyize imbere ubu ni ukwihangana mu by'imari - kunoza ubwishingizi bw'imari binyuze mu gukuraho imitungo itari iy'ingenzi, kunoza uburyo ibiciro bikoreshwa, no kongera amafaranga yinjira ku buntu kugira ngo bishyigikire inyungu z'abanyamigabane. Nubwo bimeze bityo ariko, ibiciro bya peteroli na gazi bishobora guteza impinduka mu masezerano y'ibihugu bikomeye by'i Burayi nyuma ya 2025.
4. Ibiciro bya peteroli, gaze n'ibyuma byagenwe ku giciro gihindagurika
OPEC+ ihanganye n'undi mwaka ugoye igerageza gukomeza Brent hejuru ya 80 USD/bbl mu mwaka wa kane wikurikiranya. Hamwe n'ingufu zikomeye zitari OPEC, twiteze ko Brent izaba ifite impuzandengo ya 70-75 USD/bbl mu 2025. Amasoko ya lisansi ashobora gukomera mbere yuko ubushobozi bushya bwa LNG bugera muri 2026, bigatuma ibiciro by'umuringa bizamuka kandi bigahindagurika. Ibiciro by'umuringa byatangiye mu 2025 kuri 4.15 USD/lb, bigabanuka ugereranyije n'ingufu za 2024, ariko byitezwe ko bizasubira inyuma bikagera kuri 4.50 USD/lb bitewe n'uko Amerika n'Ubushinwa basaba cyane kurusha ibirombe bishya.
5. Ingufu n'Ingufu Zishobora Kuvugururwa: Umwaka wo Kwihutisha Udushya
Gutanga uburenganzira buhoro no guhuza ingufu byagabanyije iterambere ry’ingufu zishobora kongera gukoreshwa. Ibimenyetso birimo kugaragara byerekana ko umwaka wa 2025 ushobora kuba ihinduka rikomeye. Amavugurura y’Ubudage yazamuye 150% by’ibyemeza by’umuyaga ku nkombe kuva mu 2022, mu gihe amavugurura ya FERC yo muri Amerika atangiye kugabanya igihe cyo guhuza ingufu - hamwe na ISO zimwe na zimwe zishyiraho uburyo bwo gukora ikoranabuhanga kugira ngo zigabanye inyigo kuva ku myaka kugeza ku mezi. Kwagura vuba ikigo cy’amakuru biri no gutuma za guverinoma, cyane cyane muri Amerika, zishyira imbere gutanga amashanyarazi. Uko igihe kigenda gihita, ibi bishobora gukaza amasoko ya lisansi no kuzamura ibiciro by’amashanyarazi, bikaba ikibazo cya politiki nk’ibiciro bya lisansi mbere y’amatora y’umwaka ushize.
Uko imiterere y’isi ikomeza gutera imbere, abakoresha ingufu bazakenera gukoresha ayo mahirwe n’ibyago mu buryo bwihuse kugira ngo bagire ejo hazaza habo muri iki gihe cy’ingenzi.
Igihe cyo kohereza: Nyakanga-04-2025
