Umwaka wa 2025 uteganijwe kuba ingenzi ku rwego rw'ingufu n'umutungo kamere ku isi. Intambara ikomeje kuba mu Burusiya na Ukraine, guhagarika imirwano muri Gaza, hamwe n’inama ya COP30 izabera muri Berezile - izaba ingenzi kuri politiki y’ikirere - byose birimo gushiraho ahantu hatazwi. Hagati aho, itangira rya manda ya kabiri ya Trump, hamwe hakiri kare ku ntambara n’amahoro y’ubucuruzi, byongereye urwego rushya rw’imyumvire ya politiki.
Muri ibi bihe bigoye, amasosiyete yingufu ahura nicyemezo kitoroshye cyo kugabana imari mumavuta y’ibicanwa n’ishoramari rito rya karubone. Nyuma yibikorwa byakozwe na M&A mumezi 18 ashize, guhuriza hamwe mubyiciro bya peteroli bikomeje gukomera kandi birashobora gukwirakwira mubucukuzi. Muri icyo gihe, ikigo cyamakuru na AI boom biratera byihutirwa amashanyarazi asukuye amasaha yose, bisaba inkunga ikomeye ya politiki.
Dore inzira eshanu zingenzi zizashiraho urwego rwingufu muri 2025:
1. Politiki ya geopolitike na politiki yubucuruzi ivugurura amasoko
Gahunda nshya y’ibiciro bya Trump ibangamiye iterambere ry’isi yose, birashoboka ko yogosha amanota 50 y’ibanze yo kwagura GDP no kuyamanura kugera kuri 3%. Ibi birashobora kugabanya ibikenerwa na peteroli kwisi 500.000 kuri buri munsi - hafi igice cyumwaka. Hagati aho, kuba Amerika yaravuye mu masezerano y'i Paris bisiga amahirwe make y'ibihugu bizamura intego za NDC mbere ya COP30 kugira ngo bisubire mu nzira ya 2 ° C. Nubwo Trump ishyira amahoro muri Ukraine no muburasirazuba bwo hagati amahoro, icyemezo icyo aricyo cyose gishobora kongera ibicuruzwa no kugabanya ibiciro.
2. Kwiyongera kw'ishoramari, ariko ku muvuduko gahoro
Biteganijwe ko ishoramari ry’ingufu n’umutungo kamere rizarenga miriyoni 1.5 USD mu 2025, rikaba ryiyongereyeho 6% kuva mu 2024 - amateka mashya, nyamara iterambere rikaba ryaragabanutse kugera ku gice cy’umuvuduko ugaragara mu myaka icumi ishize. Amasosiyete arimo kwitonda cyane, agaragaza ukudashidikanya ku muvuduko w'inzibacyuho. Ishoramari rito rya karubone ryazamutse kugera kuri 50% y’ingufu zose zikoreshwa mu 2021 ariko kuva icyo gihe. Kugera ku ntego za Paris bizasaba kongera 60% gushora imari muri 2030.
3. Abayobozi b’ibikomoka kuri peteroli berekana ibisubizo byabo
Nkuko ibihangange bya peteroli muri Amerika bikoresha imigabane ikomeye kugirango bigure abigenga mu gihugu, amaso yose ari kuri Shell, BP na Equinor. Muri iki gihe icyo bashyira imbere ni ukwihangana n’amafaranga - guhuza ibikorwa mu gutandukanya umutungo udafite ishingiro, kunoza imikorere y’ibiciro, no kuzamura amafaranga ku buntu kugira ngo bunganire inyungu z’abanyamigabane. Nubwo ibiciro bya peteroli na gaze bidakomeye bishobora gukurura amasezerano ahinduka n’ibihugu by’i Burayi nyuma ya 2025.
4. Amavuta, gaze nicyuma byashyizweho kubiciro bihindagurika
OPEC + ihura nundi mwaka utoroshye ugerageza gukomeza Brent hejuru ya USD 80 / bbl umwaka wa kane yikurikiranya. Hamwe n’ibicuruzwa bitari byiza bya OPEC, turateganya ko Brent igereranya USD 70-75 / bbl mu 2025. Amasoko ya gaze ashobora gukomera mbere yuko ubushobozi bushya bwa LNG bugera mu 2026, bigatuma ibiciro biri hejuru kandi bihindagurika. Ibiciro by'umuringa byatangiye 2025 kuri USD 4.15 / lb, bikamanuka kuva ku mpinga ya 2024, ariko biteganijwe ko bizongera kugera ku mpuzandengo ya USD 4.50 / lb kubera icyifuzo gikomeye cy’Amerika n’Ubushinwa kirenze ibyoherezwa mu birombe bishya.
5. Imbaraga & Kuvugurura: Umwaka wo Kwihutisha Udushya
Buhoro buhoro kwemerera no guhuza byatumye imbaraga ziyongera ziyongera. Ibimenyetso bigaragara ko 2025 bishobora kwerekana impinduka. Ivugurura ry’Ubudage ryakuyeho ibyemezo by’umuyaga ku nkombe ku kigero cya 150% kuva mu 2022, mu gihe ivugurura rya FERC ry’Amerika ryatangiye kugabanya igihe cy’imikoranire - hamwe na ISO zimwe na zimwe zatangizaga ibyuma kugira ngo bigabanye ubushakashatsi kuva ku mezi. Kwagura amakuru byihuse kandi biratera leta cyane cyane muri Amerika, gushyira imbere amashanyarazi. Nyuma yigihe, ibyo bishobora gukaza isoko rya gaze no kuzamura ibiciro byamashanyarazi, bigahinduka politiki nkibiciro bya lisansi mbere y’amatora y’umwaka ushize.
Mugihe imiterere ikomeje kugenda itera imbere, abakinyi b'ingufu bazakenera gukoresha ayo mahirwe hamwe ningaruka bafite imbaraga kugirango babone ejo hazaza habo muri iki gihe gisobanura.
Igihe cyo kohereza: Nyakanga-04-2025
